Year-end prognostications for 2024 have begun in earnest. I’ve seen several and this one from Origin seems, for the most part, to be relatively modest and realistic in its predictions. Origin, as with recent posts by others, suggests the coming ‘wave of distressed assets’ will appear in 2H2024 and this will be a ‘once in a generation’ opportunity. Agree with the first ‘wave’ comment…not so sure about the second ‘once in a generation’ thought. Will there be distress? To be sure. Once in a generation? Maybe. I understand the mind-bending amount of data and metrics available in today’s world makes predictions a bit more certain. And I also understand the ‘avalanche’ of variable rate debt coming due, and its potential consequences. But will banks and lenders move more aggressively to stave off defaults and foreclosures? Will their current balance sheet requirements preclude this? Will ‘grave dancers’ engage sooner in the default process? Will the government get involved if things get really bad? Time will tell. Recommend taking a look at the attached.

 

 

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